Vancouver's Housing Crisis: A Glimpse into the Future and a Call for Action
A groundbreaking new study, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unlock Canadian Housing Supply, provides a sobering glimpse into Vancouver’s housing future. Using artificial intelligence to forecast prices, the report warns that affordability in the city could worsen dramatically over the next decade — unless meaningful policy reforms are made.
Vancouver’s Alarming Trajectory: $2.8 Million by 2032
The study projects Vancouver’s median home price could surpass $2.8 million by 2032 if current trends continue. That figure is far higher than other major Canadian cities, where Toronto is forecasted to hit $1.8 million and Montreal around $800,000.
These projections underscore Vancouver’s unique affordability challenge — one that can’t be explained by demand alone, but also by how supply is shaped, restricted, and delivered.
The Supply Conundrum: Why “Build More” Isn’t Enough
While it might seem like the solution is simply to build more homes, the study reveals it isn’t that straightforward in Vancouver. Even doubling the rate of housing completions would only lower the projected 2032 median price from $2.8 million to $2.5 million.
This muted effect contrasts sharply with Toronto, where increased supply would have a far greater impact. The takeaway: in Vancouver, structural barriers in how we build and approve housing matter just as much as the number of units.
Policy as the Key: Unlocking Supply with “Low-Cost, High-Impact” Levers
The most important insight from the study is that policy reform can meaningfully unlock supply without massive spending. Easing municipal restrictions and streamlining approval processes were identified as “low-cost, high-impact levers” that could deliver real change.
- A 10% reduction in building restrictions could increase annual completions by nearly 10%.
- A 10% cut in approval delays could add another 3%.
In other words, cutting red tape has the potential to move the needle far more effectively than new subsidies or major programs alone.
Connecting the Dots: Supply vs. the Right Supply
This isn’t the first time the conversation has shifted toward the type of supply Vancouver is building, not just the volume. Recently, a group of Metro Vancouver planners, architects, and housing advocates sent an open letter to Ottawa, pushing back against the idea that more units alone will solve the crisis.
As we highlighted in our earlier coverage, these experts argued that affordability requires smarter housing — not just more towers. Their recommendations focused on protecting existing affordable rentals, prioritizing non-market housing, and building the kinds of homes local families actually need.
Taken together, these perspectives reinforce that Vancouver’s housing crisis is multidimensional. Quantity, quality, and policy all need to work in concert.
A Call to Action for Vancouver
The AI-driven projections are a clear wake-up call: without bold policy changes, Vancouver’s affordability crisis will only deepen. Policymakers must embrace reforms that cut delays, reduce unnecessary restrictions, and ensure that new housing truly serves local needs.
For residents, these reports are reminders that headlines and national averages often don’t capture the nuances of the North Shore and Greater Vancouver markets. Conditions here remain distinct — and the way we address affordability today will shape what’s possible for the next generation.
The time for debate is narrowing. Vancouver is at a crossroads, and the choices made now will determine whether the city becomes increasingly out of reach — or takes meaningful steps toward balance and inclusivity.
Thinking About the Market?
Whether you’re considering a purchase, sale, or investment in North or West Vancouver , understanding how these broader forces affect your neighbourhood is key. If you have questions about how the housing landscape is shifting — and what it means for your home or future plans — our team is here to help with local expertise and practical guidance.