January 2018 North Shore Real Estate Market Update
2017 trends have carried on into the New Year with strata-title sales leading the market and sales of single family homes continuing to soften.
In North Vancouver total sales for the month were up 25.5% from Jan 2017 led by townhomes and condos, up 127% (25 vs 11) and 31% (76 vs 58 ) respectively. Sales of houses were down 14.3% from January 2017 with just 30 for the month. This represents a Buyer’s Market for houses with just 11.2 sales to every 100 listings, the lowest absorption rate since Dec 2012. (12% or under is considered a buyer's market) Both condos and townhomes saw an absorption rate of 60+ sales per 100 listings. (over 20% is considered a sellers market)
In West Vancouver total sales for the month were up 13.5% from Jan 2017 led by condos which saw sales increase 50%. House and townhome sales dropped 28% and 50% respectively. The house market continues to be a Buyer’s Market with just 3.5 sales to every 100 listings, the lowest absorption rate since Dec 2008.
Why such differing markets? Affordability and a closing price divide. When single family house prices initially climbed condo values remained largely unchanged. In North Vancouver, at the peak of our house market in 2016, the monthly average condo price-to-house price ratio hovered in the mid 20%’s, while the historical average is 38%. Last month it was 42%. (ie the average NV condo sale price in January was $691,500 and the average single family house sale price was $1,637,500 which equates to condos being 42% of the value of homes).
What we’re seeing + hearing. In general, buyer interest in the market remains high, yet confidence is diminishing. Currently there is a lack of urgency which has been prevalent the last number of years. We have heard from many potential buyers that they are waiting to see how the market reacts to the new mortgage rules and higher interest rates. Their expectations are that prices will level off or fall. We’ve heard these sentiments before, and we find that if enough buyers take this approach it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The market so far has proven resilient but global volatility, recently introduced federal government mortgage stress tests, potential new provincial government policies, and continued affordability issues have the potential to further weaken confidence.
Buying. If you own a condo and have always dreamed about buying a house now may be a great time to take advantage of the increased value of your home.
Selling. If you are thinking of selling, take advantage of the market we have – don’t try to time it as seasonal trends will likely be overshadowed by the market.
As always, if you have any questions about our North and West Vancouver real estate market review, and if we can help by providing information or assist with a purchase or sale we’d be pleased to hear from you. Since 1979 we’ve helped over 3,500 clients buy and sell and we would love the opportunity to meet with you to discuss your goals. We can be reached at 604.983.2518.
To read the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's Jan 2018 Stats report click here >
To watch the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's Jan 2018 Stats video click here >
{Update Feb 21st, 2018}
The 2018 BC Budget was announced yesterday introducing new and increased taxes for real estate. Effective today, the transfer tax increases for properties over $3m and the foreign buyer tax increases to 20%. Also announced was a speculation tax on residential properties targeting foreign and domestic homeowners who don’t pay income tax in BC. Learn more about the changes here.
The new taxes will likely soften the already weak higher end of the North and West Van real estate market. Thinking of buying or selling and wondering how these taxes will impact your decision? We'd be pleased to discuss. Call us at 604.983.2518.
January 2018 STATS
NORTH VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE MARKET
STATS + TRENDS // JANUARY 2018
| North Vancouver Listings and Sales Stats | |||
| Jan-18 | Jan-17 | % Change | |
| New Listings | 284 | 295 | -3.7 |
| Total Inventory | 426 | 451 | -5.5 |
| Sales | 133 | 106 | 25.5 |
| Sales/Listing Ratio | 0.31 | 0.24 | 32.8 |
| Average Sale Price [SF] ($) | 1,637,500 | 1,600,000 | 2.3 |
| Days on Market | 19 | 17 | 11.8 |
WEST VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE MARKET
STATS + TRENDS // JANUARY 2018
| West Vancouver Listings and Sales Stats | |||
| Jan-18 | Jan-17 | % Change | |
| New Listings | 182 | 197 | -7.6 |
| Total Inventory | 502 | 459 | 9.4 |
| Sales | 42 | 37 | 13.5 |
| Sales/Listing Ratio | 0.084 | 0.081 | 3.7 |
| Average Sale Price [SF] ($) | 3,052,000 | 2,675,000 | 14.1 |
| Days on Market | 50 | 26 | 92.3 |
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* Stats/Trends Source: Sales, listings, and price data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
**Days on Market and Average Sale Price are calculated as the Median amount. Medians not available for periods with less than 20 sales